Ten things about Venezuela: on oil, geopolitics and drugs

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Michael Cembalest

Research

9 Pages

Michael Cembalest argues Venezuela is not currently central to global oil supply, so even dramatic geopolitics might have limited direct oil impact. He highlights the Strait of Hormuz as a bigger choke point, yet notes recent shocks produced surprisingly modest oil market reactions. The piece also connects Venezuela to critical minerals uncertainty and the economics of illicit activity.

Date published: January 4, 2026

Key Takeaways

Oil market context: Venezuela supply is framed as secondary versus larger global chokepoints and demand trends.
Minerals uncertainty: Evidence on reserves is mixed, yet China related activity keeps the topic relevant.
Illicit economy scale: Illicit activity is portrayed as economically meaningful, shaping incentives and stability.
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