The Coronavirus’s $20 Trillion Hit to Global Corporations

Bridgewater

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The authors examine how the coronavirus shock could ripple through global corporations, profits, spending, and balance sheets. They estimate more than $20 trillion in lost revenue, arguing that how governments and companies absorb those losses could shape the pace and unevenness of recovery.

Key Takeaways

Corporate Profit Shock: Global corporate profits could fall roughly $5.8 trillion in 2020, while companies may still face approximately $1.55 trillion in remaining capital needs.
Spending Pullback: Companies could cut roughly $2.4 trillion of capex and $1 trillion of buybacks, M&A, and dividends as weaker revenues pressure cash flows.
US Cash Vulnerability: Roughly 35% of US companies by sales may struggle to withstand a 20% revenue hit lasting 12 months without additional capital or deeper cuts.

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