The Crisis Is Accelerating the New Paradigm

Bridgewater

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Bridgewater Associates examines how the COVID shock accelerated a shift toward coordinated fiscal and monetary policy as traditional central bank tools reached their limits. The authors argue this new policy regime may persist beyond the crisis, with US obligations projected near 11x GDP by 2030.

Key Takeaways

Economic Shock Deepens: Most economies were tracking toward a 10 to 15% near term GDP hit, increasing deflation risks and pressure for aggressive policy support.
Policy Playbook Changes: The Fed paired unlimited QE with $2 trillion in stimulus, illustrating how coordinated fiscal and monetary policy could become a more permanent tool.
Outcomes Remain Wide: Bridgewater estimated roughly $4 trillion in lost US business revenue and around $12 trillion globally, leaving substantial uncertainty around the eventual recovery path.

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