Ninety One assesses whether structural shifts—including rising twin deficits, fiscal unpredictability, global geopolitical rebalancing, and eroding U.S. rate advantages—could finally reverse a decades-long U.S. dollar up‑cycle. Drawing from historical turning points, they show that only when trade patterns, capital flows, policy divergence, and FX interventions converge does the dollar trend shift—and argue that mounting forces under a possible second Trump term align decisively.
The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump
Ninety One
Sahil Mahtani
Research
23 Pages
Key Takeaways
Dollar cycle rarity: Dollar up‑cycles span ~18 years; reversal requires synchronized shifts across macro, trade, capital, and policy forces.
Historic parallel observed: During past reversals (e.g., Plaza Accord), aligned shocks triggered decisive multi‑year dollar down‑cycles.
Current regime alignment: Tariffs, widening twin deficits, shrinking rate gaps, and rising global coordination suggest the first durable dollar down‑cycle since 2002 may be emerging.
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