As the multilateralism dissolves, a new order seems to be emerging in which goods are traded under different sets of rules. BCG created four scenarios for the next decade, and sees momentum for a multi-nodal trade patchwork.
Trade in Transition: How to Prepare for a Patchwork World Order
BCG
Research
16 Pages
Key Takeaways
Managing Trade: In the patchwork scenario, trade would be managed through four main nodes, each with distinct rules and approaches: a group of “Plurilaterist” nations, the US, China, and the other BRICS+ nations.
Resiliency: Overall trade would remain resilient, expanding slightly faster than global GDP for the next ten years, but the routes many goods travel would change.
Growth: As a group, the Plurilateralist nations would see above-average growth among themselves and most of the Global South. The US share of global trade would fall, while China would deepen its trade with other BRICS+ nations and the rest of the Global South.
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