We’re All Mercantilists Now

Bridgewater

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Bridgewater examines the global shift toward modern mercantilism, where governments increasingly prioritize national strength, domestic industry, and trade balances over free market efficiency. The authors argue this transition could reshape growth, corporate profits, and trade relationships, particularly for export dependent economies like China and Europe.

Key Takeaways

Industrial Policy Expands: US manufacturing construction spending has nearly doubled following increased policy support through measures including the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act.
China Faces Pressure: Net exports contributed roughly 1% to Chinese real growth over the past year, helping support policy makers’ 5% growth target.
Production Consumption Imbalance: China accounts for roughly 30% of global production, while its share of global consumption is less than half that level.

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