Rockefeller Global Family Office examines how shifting market dynamics and investor behavior are reshaping long-term return expectations and portfolio construction. The paper argues future equity returns could settle closer to 4–6% while rising concentration risk and changing stock-bond correlations challenge traditional diversification assumptions, raising questions about how resilient conventional portfolios remain.
2019 Capital Market Assumptions 10-Year Strategic Outlook For Major Asset Classes
Rockefeller Global Family Office
Chloe Duanshi
Research
62 Pages
Key Takeaways
Lower Forward Returns: Expected equity returns may compress to 4–6% annually versus ~10% historically, driven by elevated valuations and slower nominal GDP growth assumptions.
Concentration Risk Rising: The top 10 U.S. stocks now exceed 30% of index weight, increasing downside risk if leadership reverses or earnings disappoint.
Diversification Under Pressure: Stock-bond correlations turned positive in 2022, weakening 60/40 portfolio protection compared to decades when correlations averaged around -0.3.
Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week
