Capital Market Assumptions

Capital Market Assumptions
March 2026

Capital Market Assumptions: An Expanded Toolkit for the Next Investing Regime

KKR

Henry McVey

Research

12 Pages

KKR published their assumptions for expected returns, yields, and volatility, correlations, and manager dispersion across both public and private markets.

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Markets
October 2025

2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

John Bilton

Research

92 Pages

J.P. Morgan Asset Management lays out its 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, framing a 10–15 year outlook shaped by economic nationalism, fiscal policy shifts, and accelerating AI adoption.

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Market Outlooks
April 2021

Capital Market Assumptions – 10-Year Strategic and Longer-Term Secular Outlook for Asset Classes

Rockefeller Capital Management

Jimmy Chang

Research

71 Pages

Rockefeller Capital Management outlines long-term capital market assumptions across major asset classes, focusing on expected returns, inflation, and interest rate dynamics.

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Markets
March 2021

2021 Capital Markets Expectations

Meketa

Research

80 Pages

Meketa Investment Group outlines forward-looking capital market expectations across asset classes, focusing on return assumptions, valuation starting points, and the implications for long-term portfolio construction.

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Markets
December 2020

25th Annual Edition – Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Research

130 Pages

J.P. Morgan Asset Management outlines how shifting economic regimes marked by higher inflation, stronger growth, and rising rates reshape long-term asset returns and portfolio construction.

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Market Outlooks
June 2020

Capital Market Line

PineBridge

Michael Kelly

Research

9 Pages

PineBridge Investments outlines how its Capital Market Line framework translates forward-looking return and volatility assumptions into asset allocation decisions across global markets.

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Markets
February 2020

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

Invesco

Harry Markowitz

Research

68 Pages

Invesco’s 2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions outlines a lower-return, higher-volatility decade ahead, challenging the effectiveness of traditional portfolio construction.

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Market Outlooks
November 2019

Expected Returns – Escaping the Hall of Mirrors

Robeco

Research

117 Pages

Robeco outlines a five-year outlook focused on expected returns across asset classes in a world transitioning away from ultra-loose monetary policy.

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Markets
November 2019

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

John Bilton

Research

12 Pages

J.P. Morgan Asset Management outlines long-term return expectations across asset classes, arguing investors face structurally lower returns in a low-rate, late-cycle world.

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Markets
November 2019

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assmptions

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

John Bilton

Research

116 Pages

J.P. Morgan Asset Management lays out its 2020 long-term capital market assumptions, focusing on how ultra-low yields and late-cycle dynamics reshape portfolio construction over a 10–15 year horizon.

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Markets
March 2019

2019 Capital Market Assumptions 10-Year Strategic Outlook For Major Asset Classes

Rockefeller Global Family Office

Chloe Duanshi

Research

62 Pages

Rockefeller Global Family Office examines how shifting market dynamics and investor behavior are reshaping long-term return expectations and portfolio construction.

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Market Outlooks
February 2018

Capital Market Assumptions: 10 Consultant Outlooks

eVestment

Research

26 Pages

eVestment examines how 10 investment consultants adjusted capital market assumptions across equities, fixed income, and alternatives during 2016 and 2017.

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Markets
September 2017

5 Year Expected Returns 2018 to 2022

Robeco

Research

108 Pages

Robeco’s “Coming of Age” explores how elevated valuations and tightening monetary policy could suppress five year asset class returns despite steady economic growth.

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Markets
February 2017

2017 Capital Market Assumptions For Major Asset Classes

AQR

Antti Ilmanen

Research

16 Pages

AQR explores why investors may need to reset expectations for stocks, bonds, and traditional 60/40 portfolios in a lower return world.

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Markets
December 2016

Financial Market History: Reflections on the Past for Investors Today

CFA Institute

David Chambers, Elroy Dimson

Research

306 Pages

CFA Institute Research Foundation explores how centuries of bubbles, currency speculation, and financial innovation still shape modern investing.

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