J.P. Morgan Asset Management lays out its 2020 long-term capital market assumptions, focusing on how ultra-low yields and late-cycle dynamics reshape portfolio construction over a 10–15 year horizon. Growth is expected to slow to 2.3%, challenging traditional diversification. Bonds may no longer provide meaningful protection, pushing investors toward alternatives and global diversification.
2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assmptions
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
John Bilton
Research
116 Pages
Key Takeaways
Slower Global Growth: Real global GDP is projected at 2.3% over 10–15 years, with developed markets at 1.5% and emerging markets slowing to 3.9%.
Lower Bond Returns: Investment grade credit return expectations fall to 3.4%, with some fixed income segments potentially delivering near 0% or negative real returns.
Alternatives Gain Appeal: Private equity return forecasts rise to 8.8%, outpacing public equities at 6.5%, reinforcing demand for illiquid assets in diversified portfolios.
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