J.P. Morgan Asset Management outlines long-term return expectations across asset classes, arguing investors face structurally lower returns in a low-rate, late-cycle world. It challenges the role of bonds as reliable diversifiers and suggests alternatives may play a larger role, with global growth projected around 2.3% over the next decade.
2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
John Bilton
Research
12 Pages
Key Takeaways
Lower Growth Outlook: Global GDP growth is expected at 2.3% over 10–15 years, with developed markets at 1.5% and emerging markets slowing to 3.9%.
60/40 Returns Compress: A traditional 60/40 portfolio is projected to return just 5.4%, reflecting a 10 bps decline driven by lower bond yields.
Alternatives Gain Importance: Private equity return expectations rise to 8.8%, roughly 230 bps above public equities, highlighting a shift toward private markets for return enhancement.
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