J.P. Morgan Asset Management lays out its 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, framing a 10–15 year outlook shaped by economic nationalism, fiscal policy shifts, and accelerating AI adoption. The paper argues that despite structural headwinds, balanced portfolios remain resilient, with a 6.4% return outlook and potential upside from alternatives.
2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
John Bilton
Research
92 Pages
Key Takeaways
Balanced Portfolio Resilience: A global 60/40 portfolio is projected to return 6.4% annually over 10–15 years, holding near long-run averages despite higher starting valuations.
Alternatives Boost Returns: Adding ~30% alternatives lifts expected returns to 6.9% and improves Sharpe ratios by about 25% versus a traditional 60/40 allocation.
AI Driven Growth Impact: Artificial intelligence is expected to add roughly 20bps annually to developed market growth, supporting productivity and long-term earnings expansion.
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