Summary Edition Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2019

Credit Suisse

Elroy Dimson

Research

43 Pages

Credit Suisse examines 119 years of global asset returns, comparing equities, bonds, and cash while exploring risk premiums, emerging markets, and factor investing across 23 countries. It challenges assumptions by showing equities’ long run premium sits just above 4%, far below recent experience.

Key Takeaways

Equity Premium Reality: Global equities delivered just over a 4% excess return over 119 years, far below the roughly 10 year post crisis experience many investors anchor to.
Emerging Markets Shift: Since 1950, emerging markets outperformed developed markets by about 1% annually, yet still lagged over the full 1900–2018 period due to earlier underperformance.
Rate Environment Impact: When real interest rates are low, subsequent equity and bond returns trend lower, with real equity returns historically averaging just above 5% globally.
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