2026 Global FX Outlook: Different Dollar Downside | Idea Farm

2026 Global FX Outlook: Different Dollar Downside

Goldman Sachs

Research

46 Pages

January 2026

Goldman Sachs outlines why the US dollar may drift lower in 2026 as global growth and returns become more balanced. They still see a floor under the dollar if US growth stays above consensus and foreign capital demand remains firm. The provocation is simple: dollar depreciation can happen without any true loss of dollar dominance.

Date published: January 10, 2026

Key Takeaways

Shallower dollar slide: A weaker dollar path looks likely, but not the sharp move many expect.

Cyclical currencies lead: Pro cyclical and carry supported currencies can outperform in better risk sentiment.

Dominance still intact: Day to day FX moves are driven by returns and valuation, not de dollarization.

Market Outlooks Currency Global Macroeconomics

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