Capital Market Assumptions – 10-Year Strategic and Longer-Term Secular Outlook for Asset Classes

Rockefeller Capital Management

Jimmy Chang

Research

71 Pages

Rockefeller Capital Management outlines long-term capital market assumptions across major asset classes, focusing on expected returns, inflation, and interest rate dynamics. The paper suggests forward returns are likely lower than historical averages, with equities and bonds both facing headwinds. It highlights that even modest inflation shifts could materially impact portfolio outcomes.

Key Takeaways

Lower Return Outlook: Expected equity returns are projected around 5–7% annually, below historical averages closer to 8–10% over prior decades.
Bond Yield Constraints: Starting yields near 1–2% imply limited upside, with fixed income returns closely tied to current yield levels.
Inflation Sensitivity Rising: A 1% increase in inflation expectations could reduce real portfolio returns by several percentage points over time.
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