Global Equity Mid Year Outlook 2026

Charles Schwab

Chris Ferrarone, Michelle Gibley

Research

13 Pages

Charles Schwab International says global equities remain supported by stronger earnings and AI driven capital spending, but the rally is increasingly dependent on narrow leadership. Inflation, geopolitical shocks, and elevated valuations could make the second half of 2026 more volatile.

Key Takeaways

Earnings Growth Accelerates: MSCI ACWI first quarter earnings grew 24% year over year, more than double the 11% average pace recorded across the previous four quarters.
Forecasts Move Higher: Forward earnings growth expectations climbed to 24%, representing an increase of roughly 14 percentage points since the beginning of 2026.
Valuations Stay Elevated: Most major equity markets currently trade near the upper end of their 20 year valuation ranges, leaving less room for disappointment.
Source: Charles Schwab, data from 1/1/1970 through 4/30/2026.
Source: Charles Schwab, S&P Global, U.S. Department of the Treasury, and Macrobond data from 1/1/1966 through 5/29/2026.
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