Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets | Idea Farm

Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets

Federal Reserve Bank

Research

41 Pages

March 2026

A Fed study suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.

Key Takeaways

Fed path clarity: Kalshi’s median and mode were perfect one day before FOMC meetings, outperforming fed funds futures.

Headline CPI edge: Kalshi posted 0.063 MAE on headline CPI versus 0.081 for Bloomberg estimates.

News sensitivity: July 2025 rate cut odds rose to 25% after dovish comments, then reversed after strong payroll data.

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