Public to Private Equity in the United States: A Long-Term Look

Morgan Stanley

Michael Mauboussin, Dan Callahan

Research

91 Pages

Morgan Stanley examines the 40-year shift from public to private U.S. equity markets, including buyouts, venture capital, exits, and returns. Public listings are roughly half their 1996 level, while private markets raised more than twice as much capital as public markets from 2020–2025 amid tougher exits and higher rates.

Key Takeaways

Listings keep shrinking: The U.S. had about 3,500 listed companies in 2025, less than half the 1997 total despite $72.5 trillion market capitalization.
Returns need growth: A 2025 buyout needs 12% annual EBITDA growth to reach 2.5x MOIC, versus 5% for a comparable 2015 deal.
Exit backlog swells: Buyout exits fell from $825 billion in 2021 to $375 billion in 2025, while decade-old fund assets reached $350 billion.
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