Apollo argues AI is unlikely to cause mass unemployment, but investors should not dismiss labor disruption either. The key issue is whether AI expands demand or simply cuts costs, with winners depending on pricing power, market structure, and adaptation speed.
AI’s Labor Ambitions: Separating Myth From Reality
Apollo
Robert Bittencourt
Research
5 Pages
Key Takeaways
Job Loss Looks Gradual: Apollo notes layoffs remain below pre pandemic levels, while early disruption may appear first through slower hiring for younger workers.
Cost Savings Compete: Airline productivity improved about 30% since 1995, but real ticket pricing fell roughly 40% as competition passed benefits to customers.
Labor Shifts Instead: Since Excel’s Windows release, bookkeepers declined while financial managers and management analysts rose toward roughly 2,000 thousand workers.
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