Niall Ferguson examines how artificial intelligence is reshaping global security through two largely unconstrained races: one among leading AI companies and another between the U.S. and China. He argues that geopolitical risks may outweigh economic concerns and suggests AI could eventually require a détente framework resembling past nuclear arms control efforts.
Artificial Intelligence and Global Security
Hoover Institution
Niall Ferguson
Research
16 Pages
Key Takeaways
Massive Capital Commitments: AI infrastructure spending could reach $4 trillion to $9 trillion over five years, requiring roughly $2.7 trillion in annual revenue to justify a 10% return.
Labor Market Disruption: Employment among 22 to 25 year olds in highly AI exposed occupations fell 6%, and 16% after controls, during the three years following ChatGPT's introduction.
Growing Public Backlash: 76% of Americans believe AI needs regulation, while local opposition blocked or delayed at least 48 data center projects worth $156 billion.
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