Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence

Stanford University

Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, Ruyu Chen

Research

57 Pages

Stanford researchers use payroll data from ADP to analyze how generative AI adoption is reshaping employment across occupations. They find that early-career workers in AI-exposed roles face disproportionate job losses, while older peers remain stable, with automation driving declines more than augmentation.

Key Takeaways

Youth employment hit: Workers aged 22–25 in AI-exposed jobs saw a 13% relative employment decline since late 2022.
Automation vs. augmentation: Job losses concentrate in roles where AI substitutes for tasks; augmentation shows muted or positive effects.
Wage stickiness: Adjustments show up in headcount, not pay—compensation trends remain stable across exposure groups.
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