UBS examines the structural buildup of US debt across households, corporations, and government, arguing that rising leverage is less about an imminent crisis and more about long-term economic drag and reduced policy flexibility. It highlights that total US debt has surpassed $70T, raising questions about sustainability even in a low-rate environment.
Does Corporate America Have a Debt Problem?
UBS
Dan Heron, Ryan Primmer
Research
15 Pages
Key Takeaways
Total Debt Expansion: US debt exceeds $70T, or roughly 330% of GDP, with growth accelerating post-2008 despite historically low interest rates.
Corporate Leverage Risks: Non-financial corporate debt approaches 47% of GDP, near cycle highs, with weaker credit quality and rising share of BBB-rated issuance.
weaker credit quality and rising share of BBB-rated issuance. Fiscal Constraints Rising: Federal debt held by the public surpasses 75% of GDP, limiting future stimulus capacity and increasing sensitivity to even modest rate increases.
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