Fiscal Policy

Fiscal Policy
November 2025

What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy

Federal Reserve Bank

Régis Barnichon, Aayush Singh

Research

25 Pages

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economists study tariff shocks over 150 years to estimate their macroeconomic effects.

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Global Macroeconomics
September 2025

The Rising Tide of Government Interest Costs (Cole)

Goldman Sachs

George Cole

Research

10 Pages

Goldman Sachs explains why G10 government interest costs are still climbing even as policy rates peak: large debt stocks are being refinanced at higher rates while deficits remain wide.

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Global Macroeconomics
June 2025

US fiscal worries: Is this time different?

Goldman Sachs

Research

28 Pages

Goldman Sachs’ covers the US fiscal deficit issue from a variety of angles. This includes interviews with Ray Dalio, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, and historian Sir Niall Ferguson and have other commentary around this issue for Europe, Asia and Emerging Markets.

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Global Macroeconomics
June 2025

Signal over noise #10: The fiscal tightrope

UBS

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi

Research

7 Pages

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi explains why she believes the US debt burden remains manageable and that growth is the best option for the US to reduce the deficit over time.

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Global Macroeconomics
February 2025

Ferguson’s Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of Power

Hoover Institution

Niall Ferguson

Research

34 Pages

Historian Niall Ferguson introduces a principle suggesting that a great power is at risk of decline when its debt servicing costs surpass its defense spending.

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Global Macroeconomics
January 2025

The Inauguration: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Research

10 Pages

J.P. Morgan’s January 2025 “Eye on the Market” update examines the early impacts of the Trump administration’s second-term executive orders.

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Global Macroeconomics
December 2022

The Path to a Pivot

3Fourteen Research

Warren Pies

Research

13 Pages

3Fourteen Research lays out what would need to happen for the Fed to pause, and why bear market rallies can be seductive traps.

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