Fiscal Policy

Fiscal Policy
April 2026

The Effects of Tariffs on the Components of Inflation

Federal Reserve Bank

Research

15 Pages

A new Fed Study suggests that the responses of the different components of inflation to tariff changes can reduce inflation by depressing demand in the short run.

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Fiscal Policy
March 2026

Revamping Britain’s balance sheet for growth and prosperity

McKinsey & Company

Research

10 Pages

Although inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target level, the United Kingdom’s recent correction provides an opportunity to consider how best to rebuild the country’s “balance sheet”—its assets and liabilities across corporations, households, and governments.

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Fiscal Policy
November 2025

What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy

Federal Reserve Bank

Régis Barnichon, Aayush Singh

Research

25 Pages

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economists study tariff shocks over 150 years to estimate their macroeconomic effects.

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Global Macroeconomics
September 2025

The Rising Tide of Government Interest Costs (Cole)

Goldman Sachs

George Cole

Research

10 Pages

Goldman Sachs explains why G10 government interest costs are still climbing even as policy rates peak: large debt stocks are being refinanced at higher rates while deficits remain wide.

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Global Macroeconomics
June 2025

US fiscal worries: Is this time different?

Goldman Sachs

Research

28 Pages

Goldman Sachs’ covers the US fiscal deficit issue from a variety of angles. This includes interviews with Ray Dalio, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, and historian Sir Niall Ferguson and have other commentary around this issue for Europe, Asia and Emerging Markets.

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Global Macroeconomics
June 2025

Signal over noise #10: The fiscal tightrope

UBS

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi

Research

7 Pages

Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi explains why she believes the US debt burden remains manageable and that growth is the best option for the US to reduce the deficit over time.

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Global Macroeconomics
February 2025

Ferguson’s Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of Power

Hoover Institution

Niall Ferguson

Research

34 Pages

Historian Niall Ferguson introduces a principle suggesting that a great power is at risk of decline when its debt servicing costs surpass its defense spending.

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Global Macroeconomics
January 2025

The Inauguration: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Research

10 Pages

J.P. Morgan’s January 2025 “Eye on the Market” update examines the early impacts of the Trump administration’s second-term executive orders.

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Global Macroeconomics
December 2022

The Path to a Pivot

3Fourteen Research

Warren Pies

Research

13 Pages

3Fourteen Research lays out what would need to happen for the Fed to pause, and why bear market rallies can be seductive traps.

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Global Macroeconomics
September 2020

Fiscal Stimulus Matters More Than Ever: Is It Falling Short?

Bridgewater

Kevin Brennan, Larry Cofsky

Article

1 Pages

The authors examine how the speed, size, and structure of fiscal stimulus shaped economic recoveries during the pandemic

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Fiscal Policy
September 2020

Fiscal Stimulus Matters More Than Ever: Is It Falling Short?

Bridgewater

Larry Cofsky, Kevin Brennan

Article

1 Pages

Bridgewater Associates examines how the size, speed, and design of fiscal stimulus shaped economic recoveries during the pandemic.

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Global Macroeconomics
May 2020

Can Policy Makers Actually Get What They Want?

Bridgewater

Jason Rogers, Greg Jensen

Article

1 Pages

Bridgewater Associates examines whether coordinated monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize markets without fully repairing the underlying economy

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Global Macroeconomics
December 2019

Does Corporate America Have a Debt Problem?

UBS

Dan Heron, Ryan Primmer

Research

15 Pages

UBS examines the structural buildup of US debt across households, corporations, and government, arguing that rising leverage is less about an imminent crisis and more about long-term economic drag and reduced policy flexibility.

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