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Fiscal Policy
Firm
Author
Type
Fiscal Policy
November 2025
What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy
Federal Reserve Bank
Régis Barnichon, Aayush Singh
Research
25 Pages
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economists study tariff shocks over 150 years to estimate their macroeconomic effects.
Global Macroeconomics
September 2025
The Rising Tide of Government Interest Costs (Cole)
Goldman Sachs
George Cole
Research
10 Pages
Goldman Sachs explains why G10 government interest costs are still climbing even as policy rates peak: large debt stocks are being refinanced at higher rates while deficits remain wide.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
US fiscal worries: Is this time different?
Goldman Sachs
Research
28 Pages
Goldman Sachs’ covers the US fiscal deficit issue from a variety of angles. This includes interviews with Ray Dalio, Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, and historian Sir Niall Ferguson and have other commentary around this issue for Europe, Asia and Emerging Markets.
Global Macroeconomics
June 2025
Signal over noise #10: The fiscal tightrope
UBS
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
Research
7 Pages
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi explains why she believes the US debt burden remains manageable and that growth is the best option for the US to reduce the deficit over time.
Global Macroeconomics
February 2025
Ferguson’s Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of Power
Hoover Institution
Niall Ferguson
Research
34 Pages
Historian Niall Ferguson introduces a principle suggesting that a great power is at risk of decline when its debt servicing costs surpass its defense spending.
Global Macroeconomics
January 2025
The Inauguration: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Research
10 Pages
J.P. Morgan’s January 2025 “Eye on the Market” update examines the early impacts of the Trump administration’s second-term executive orders.
Global Macroeconomics
December 2022
The Path to a Pivot
3Fourteen Research
Warren Pies
Research
13 Pages
3Fourteen Research lays out what would need to happen for the Fed to pause, and why bear market rallies can be seductive traps.