Elastic Expectations

Citadel

Frank Flight

Research

13 Pages

Citadel Securities examines whether falling AI costs are expanding demand fast enough to support today’s lofty expectations. Token prices fell 40% since June, yet July AI spending surged among leading adopters, suggesting cheaper intelligence may be stimulating more consumption rather than shrinking the ecosystem.

Key Takeaways

Elastic AI demand: Usage weighted token prices fell 40%, while AI spend per employee jumped 49% in July among the top 1% of firms.
Cloud demand holds: Hyperscaler cloud revenue reached $106.3 billion in Q2 2026, rising 43% annually as new compute capacity found paying demand.
Markets remain restrained: Cross asset growth pricing sits at +0.84 standard deviations, only the 65th percentile of five year history despite strong AI momentum.
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Global Macroeconomics
The Rise of Anticapitalist Capitalism
Sep 2026
Global Macroeconomics
The Home Straight….
Sep 2026
AI
Drug Discovery Has No Magic Wands
Sep 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top