Exploring the Implications of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Explosion

Bridgewater

Devon Long, Will Barnes, Eka Zhao

Research

9 Pages

This paper explores how sub-Saharan Africa’s rapidly expanding working-age population may shape the global economy over coming decades. While demographic trends suggest strong potential for growth, low productivity and structural constraints pose significant challenges.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is projected to account for a quarter of the world’s working-age population within a few decades. Bridgewater looks at the different possible trajectories for the region and the implications of this on the global economy.

Source: Bridgewater

Key Takeaways

Demographic boom underway: Sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population is projected to surpass China’s within 10 years, driving global labor force growth
Productivity lags persist: Despite favorable demographics, low investment and weak institutions constrain economic development and capital formation
Risks of divergence grow: If growth remains low, rising migration, inequality, and geopolitical instability may emerge as long-term global challenges
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