Global Market Views: Shortages

Goldman Sachs

Dominic Wilson, Kamakshya Trivedi

Research

14 Pages

Goldman Sachs looks at how the Iran ceasefire and easing tail risk have helped markets rally despite lingering shortages in energy and AI infrastructure. The sharper point is that investors may now be pricing relief too aggressively, with US growth pricing near 2.5% and AI valuations still building.

Key Takeaways

Relief Already Priced: US growth pricing has rebounded to 2.5%, suggesting markets may already be looking past near term weakness into 2027.
AI Value Builds: Tech investment has exceeded late 1990s peaks as a share of GDP, while Exhibit 7 frames AI valuation upside near $35 trillion.
Rates Reprice Higher: Exhibit 10 shows hawkish repricing moving from front ends into long bonds, challenging the rally as 2.5% growth pricing looks stretched.
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Global Macroeconomics
Does AI Raise or Lower Neutral Rates?
Jul 2026
Global Macroeconomics
Beware a Shifting Landscape
Jul 2026
Economics
Global Views: More Crude, Less Concern
Jul 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top