Global Views: More Crude, Less Concern

Goldman Sachs

Jan Hatzius

Research

10 Pages

Goldman Sachs explains why easing tensions between the US and Iran have improved the economic outlook despite continued uncertainty in oil markets. The report explores how lower recession risk, resilient AI investment, and moderating consumer spending could shape US growth, while arguing that oil prices remain a risk rather than the base case.

Key Takeaways

Recession risk falls: Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month US recession probability from 25% to 15%, returning to its long-term average.
Growth stays resilient: US GDP growth is forecast at 2% in the second half of 2026, supported by lower gasoline prices and continued AI investment.
Labor market cools: Payroll growth is expected to slow from 188k over the past three months to just below the 60k monthly breakeven pace.
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