Global Views: They’re Not Hiking

Goldman Sachs

Jan Hatzius

Research

10 Pages

Goldman Sachs argues that softer US jobs and inflation data make a 2026 Fed hike increasingly unlikely, despite nine of 18 June FOMC participants projecting hikes. The report also examines slowing consumption, resilient European equities, China’s undervalued currency, and oil inventories nearing historic lows if Hormuz stays closed.

Key Takeaways

Fed hikes fade: Underlying trend job growth slowed to 5,000 in July, below the 50,000 breakeven rate, while core PCE is expected near 2% in 2027.
Europe defies growth: Stoxx 600 earnings rose 14% in H1 despite 3.3% nominal GDP growth, while European stocks outperformed the S&P 500 over 18 months.
China needs both: Goldman estimates the renminbi is at least 20% undervalued, suggesting appreciation must accompany stronger domestic demand to rebalance China’s economy.
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Global Macroeconomics
The Rise of Anticapitalist Capitalism
Sep 2026
Global Macroeconomics
The Home Straight….
Sep 2026
Global Macroeconomics
The Debt-Equity Distinction: A Century of Policy by Accident
Aug 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top