History Lessons: How “Transitory” Is Inflation?

Research Affiliates

Research

9 Pages

Research Affiliates challenges the idea that inflation reliably cools on a quick schedule once it spikes. Using decades of developed market history, they argue the path depends on whether inflation crests early or accelerates into a higher regime. The uncomfortable point: investors may be anchoring on the best case outcome while underweighting a long, stubborn inflation tail.

Date published: November 2022

Key Takeaways

Threshold matters: Inflation behaves differently once it pushes beyond moderate levels versus briefly popping higher.
Long lags: Policy tightening can take years to translate into meaningful inflation declines.
Two tail risk: Fast normalization is plausible, yet a drawn out high inflation regime is not rare.

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