How to Guess If Your Job Will Exist in Five Years

The Atlantic

Annie Lowrey

Research

5 Pages

The Atlantic argues that AI’s labor impact depends on whether a job is more like “coal” or “horse.” The piece uses Jevons paradox to explain why cheaper, better technology can increase demand for some workers, even as it makes other roles obsolete.

Key Takeaways

Jevons May Help: William Stanley Jevons’ 1865 coal insight suggests efficiency gains can increase total demand rather than reduce it.
Radiology Survived: Geoffrey Hinton warned in 2016 to stop training radiologists, but imaging demand expanded as tools improved.
Jobs Will Diverge: Block cut roughly half its employees, while software engineering demand may still grow if AI expands the market for code.
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