Insights into the Inflation Print

Research Affiliates

Campbell Harvey

Research

10 Pages

Research Affiliates unpacks why a better looking monthly inflation number can hide stickier underlying pressures. Campbell Harvey walks through CPI mechanics and the lagged shelter inputs that can keep the headline elevated. If shelter is roughly one third of the index, a single “cool print” may not be the all clear markets want.

Date published: August 10, 2022

Key Takeaways

CPI mechanics: Base effects can make disinflation look faster than the underlying price trend.
Shelter lag: Rent and owners equivalent rent move slowly, so inflation pressure can persist after goods cool.
Narrative risk: A single softer print may reinforce optimism even when policy constraints remain.
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