Jobless Growth

Goldman Sachs

Jan Hatzius, David Mericle, Pierfrancesco Mei

Research

15 Pages

Jan Haitzus’ team looks at the state of the labor market and considers the potential macro, monetary policy, and market implications of rapid technological progress.

Published Date: October 14, 2025

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Department of Labor, Department of Commerce. As of October 13, 2025. 

Key Takeaways

Labor signals: Job growth is weak outside healthcare and firms increasingly cite AI to cut labor costs, pointing to softer demand for workers.
Historical pattern: Tech-led productivity shocks raise occupation switching and nudge unemployment up for about two years before normalizing.
Policy and markets: Faster productivity tends to lower inflation, allowing slightly easier policy and potential asset support if labor softness stays contained.
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