P(doom), p(bling), and the fear of “technological unemployment”

BCG

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Paul Swartz

Research

6 Pages

BCG Center for Macroeconomics examines whether AI should be viewed through extremes of extinction, abundance, or mass job loss. The authors are skeptical of both p(doom) = 1 and p(bling) = 1, arguing history favors disruption, lower costs, and labor reallocation over permanent unemployment.

Key Takeaways

AI Extremes Framed: The authors compare p(doom) = 1 and p(bling) = 1, arguing both extremes can distort the most likely path ahead.
Technology Reallocates Labor: Agriculture fell from nearly 50% of U.S. workers to less than 1%, while nonfarm payrolls added over 100 million jobs.
Layoff Claims Questioned: Even tens of thousands of layoffs look small beside a labor market where over 5 million workers move monthly.
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