The Long-Run Effects of Technological Disruption on Workers

Goldman Sachs

Pierfrancesco Mei, Jessica Rindels

Research

16 Pages

Goldman Sachs studies four decades of worker level data to assess how technology driven job displacement affects employment, wages, wealth, and household formation. The findings suggest AI related displacement could create lasting costs, especially if job losses occur during a recession.

Key Takeaways

Transitions Are Harder: Technology displaced workers take about 1 month longer to find work and lose more than 3% in real earnings.
Scars Last Years: Over 10 years, technology displaced workers’ real earnings grow nearly 10 pp less than never displaced workers.
Retraining Helps: Retrained technology displaced workers see roughly 2 pp more wage growth and 10 pp lower repeat unemployment risk.
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