Goldman Sachs argues economic convergence is not over when countries are weighted by population rather than treated equally. The main finding is that large emerging economies, especially China, India, Indonesia and Bangladesh, have continued narrowing the income gap with developed markets.
The Path to 2075 — Is Convergence Really Over?
Goldman Sachs
Kevin Daly
Research
15 Pages
Key Takeaways
Convergence Still Holds: Since 2000, countries at 50% of US GDP per capita grew about 2.3 percentage points faster than developed economies.
Asia Drives Catch Up: East Asian EM GDP per capita is nearly 10 times higher than in 1980, though still well below US and Western Europe levels.
EM Growth Leads: Goldman projects EM growth of 3.8% for 2024 to 2029, versus 1.8% for developed markets, with Asia ex DM at 4.2%.
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