Vanguard Research: Megatrends The Economics of a Fraying World

Vanguard

Joseph Davis

Research

32 Pages

June 2019

Vanguard explores how aging populations are reshaping global economic growth, labor markets, and investment outcomes. As the share of people aged 65+ rises from 8% to 15% by 2045, the paper challenges the idea that aging alone derails markets. Instead, productivity and diversification may matter more than demographics.

Key Takeaways

Aging Population Surge: Global 65+ population share is projected to rise from 8% in 2015 to 15% by 2045, significantly increasing dependency ratios and shifting economic demand patterns.

Growth Impact Modest: Demographics may slightly reduce GDP growth through weaker labor force participation, but productivity gains could offset much of this drag over long horizons.

Rates And Returns Disconnect: Aging may दब pressure risk-free rates downward, yet historical data shows no consistent link between demographics and equity risk premia or long-term asset returns.

Global Macroeconomics Demographics

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Global Macroeconomics

The Long-Run Effects of Technological Disruption on Workers

May 2026

AI

AI Will Reshape More Jobs Than It Replaces

May 2026

AI

P(doom), p(bling), and the fear of “technological unemployment”

May 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.