AI at 70 (Part 2): 14 more lessons from a lifetime of boom and bust

Deutsche Bank

Adrian Cox

Research

17 Pages

Deutsche Bank Research Institute examines what 70 years of AI booms and busts suggest about today’s cycle across capital spending, models, power, IPOs, jobs, and trust. Each year of expected hyperscaler capex through 2030 exceeds the entire dot-com telecom boom, while leading models stay on top for under two months.

Key Takeaways

AI capex surges: Each year of expected hyperscaler capex through 2030 exceeds the entire 1996–2001 telecom boom, underscoring the unusual speed and scale of AI investment.
Models commoditize quickly: Leading AI models hold the top spot for less than two months on average; median monthly enterprise AI spend is only $12.50 per employee.
Power demand doubles: Global data-center electricity use is projected to nearly double from 485 TWh in 2025 to 945 TWh by 2030, reaching 3% of global electricity.
VIEW FULL REPORT

Join our newsletter to have all of this content + Exclusive Newsletter Bonus Content delivered to your inbox every week

Related Content

Markets
AI capex, required revenues, and what’s priced in the AI trade
Oct 2026
Markets
October Update: Fundamentals in Focus
Oct 2026
International Markets
The Deep-Value Opportunity in South Korea
Oct 2026

The information contained in this communication is of a general nature for informational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice. The information contained within this communication reflects the opinions of those referenced herein, and do not reflect the opinions of The Idea Farm, L.P. and its affiliates. Such opinions expressed herein are as of the date of production and are subject to change at any time without notice due to various factors, including changing market conditions or tax laws. Where data or information prepared by third parties is presented, no representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by The Idea Farm, L.P. or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, The Idea Farm, L.P. does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date. Any links to third party websites are offered only for use at your own discretion. The Idea Farm L.P., and its affiliates, are separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed herein and are not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. All investments are subject to varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy or product referenced directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, perform equally to any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Past performance is not an indicator of future results.

Scroll to Top