Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015

Credit Suisse

Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh

Research

68 Pages

Credit Suisse examines how shifting industry leadership, responsible investing, and equity discount rates have shaped long run returns across 115 years and 26 markets. One striking finding is that older industries often outperformed newer ones, challenging the assumption that innovation automatically translates into superior investment outcomes.

Key Takeaways

Industry Turnover Reality: In 1900, railways represented nearly 63% of the US market, yet by 2015 they accounted for less than 1% of market capitalization.
Old Industries Outperformed: A USD 1 investment in US tobacco stocks grew to USD 6.28 million by 2014 versus USD 1,225 for shipbuilding and shipping.
Massive Return Dispersion: The average annual spread between the best and worst performing US industries was 108% over the 1900–2014 period.
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