Man Group’s research challenges the traditional view that market timing doesn’t work. By analyzing daily returns from over 100 discretionary equity managers, the paper shows that skilled timing—when treated as dynamic risk management—can enhance performance. It emphasizes that effective timing relies on systematically adjusting exposure based on macro, volatility, and sentiment signals.
Market Timing: More than a Mirage
Man Group
Campbell Harvey, Álvaro Cartea, Alex Preston, Jonas Thulin
Research
12 Pages
Key Takeaways
Risk management lens: Market timing is more about managing exposure to risk than making short-term market predictions.
Daily data reveals skill: Using daily data shows up to 35% of top managers consistently add value through timing.
Multi-signal advantage: Combining macro, valuation, volatility, and behavioral indicators supports better timing decisions.
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