AI, demographics, and the U.S. economy

Vanguard

Joe Davis

Research

33 Pages

Vanguard examines the push and pull between artificial intelligence and demographic-driven deficits, exploring their impact on U.S. economic growth in the decade ahead.

Key Takeaways

Persistent structural deficits: An aging population contributes to ongoing structural deficits, with U.S. debt-to-GDP projected to exceed 170% by 2054.
Inflation expectations: Despite potential fiscal pressures, inflation is expected to remain contained, aligning with the Federal Reserve's price stability goals.
Historical context: Over the past 130 years, megatrends have driven approximately 60% of the variation in GDP and earnings yield, underscoring their significance in shaping economic outcomes.
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