Valuations

Markets
March 2026

A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios

Federal Reserve Bank

Research

29 Pages

Traditional valuation metrics for the U.S. stock market based on a comparison of the aggregate market value of U.S. corporations to measures of dividends, earnings, output, and the replacement cost of measured capital have been above historical norms for the past 25–30 years.

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Global Macroeconomics
January 2026

Financialization: How Deficits Inflate Profits and Equity Valuations

Research Affiliates

Chris Brightman, Alex Pickard

Research

10 Pages

Research Affiliates argues persistent fiscal deficits can flow almost one for one into corporate profits, then get capitalized into equity prices through passive, price insensitive demand.

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Markets
October 2025

A “Fairly Highly Valued” Market: A Fed Chair Opines on Stocks, but should we listen?

Aswath Damodaran

Research

10 Pages

Given Jerome Powell’s recent comment that US equities are “fairly highly valued,” Professor Aswath Damodaran examines whether markets are overpriced, and if so, whether action is warranted.

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Markets
February 2025

Current Constituents CAPE

Research Affiliates

Seanna Kim, Ted Hsu, Trent Commins

Research

8 Pages

Research Affiliates introduces Current Constituents CAPE, which modifies the CAPE Ratio by using the current index constituents and offers potentially improved predictive power, particularly over the medium term.

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Markets
February 2025

DeepFreak

Man Group

Henry Neville

Research

11 Pages

Henry Neville examines the sustainability of current technology stock valuations, drawing parallels to the DotCom era and questioning whether recent AI advancements, such as DeepSeek, can justify the high market expectations.

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Markets
January 2025

On Bubble Watch

Oaktree

Howard Marks

Research

10 Pages

Howard Marks revisits the concept of market bubbles, emphasizing that they are primarily driven by investor psychology—such as overconfidence and FOMO—rather than valuation metrics alone.

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Markets
August 2024

CONCENTRATE! Is it like 2000 again?

GMO

Ty Cobb, Anthony Hene, Tom Hancock

Research

3 Pages

GMO compares the S&P 500 today to 2000, looking at market concentration, fundamentals and valuations.

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Markets
June 2024

Introducing P-CAPE: Incorporating the Dividend Payout Ratio Improves Investors’ Favorite Estimator of Stock Market Returns

Elm Wealth

Victor Haghani

7 Pages

James White and Victor Haghani introduce P-CAPE, an enhancement to the traditional Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio.

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Portfolio Management
January 2023

After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder!

GMO

Jeremy Grantham

Research

10 Pages

GMO argues the first and easiest leg of a speculative bubble has burst, but risks remain.

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Markets
November 2021

Irrational Exuberance In The U.S. Equity Market

GMO

Jeremy Grantham

Research

4 Pages

GMO examines the role of technology-driven growth within the equity market, focusing on how a narrow group of innovative companies has driven outsized returns and reshaped index concentration.

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